Getting Less Risky That Home Prices Will Dip
Eleven metropolitan areas still face a greater than 50 percent chance that home prices will decline, but that number of at-risk areas is down from 15 areas last quarter, according to the PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Fall 2007 Market Risk Index.
Risk of falling prices remains largely concentrated in California, Florida, Las Vegas, and Phoenix, but 29 of the country’s largest MSAs still have a better than 30 percent chance for future price declines.
Areas where the market has improved the most are Boston, West Palm Beach, Fla., and Phoenix, although risk scores for all three markets remain higher than the national average.
Affordability improved in 299 MSAs, and in all but two of the 50 largest MSAs. Improvements in home price affordability across most MSAs resulted from declines in the rate of home price appreciation, coupled with steady income growth.
A copy of the full report is available at this Web site. The 11 markets with a greater than 50 percent risk in the second quarter that home prices will fall are:
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla.
Sacramento-Arden-Roseville, Calif.
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif.
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif.
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla.
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla.
